OCD chief calls for 'culture of resilience' vs. Big One

MANILA – Office of Civil Defense (OCD) Administrator, Undersecretary Ariel Nepomuceno, on Wednesday emphasized the importance of fostering a culture of resilience among Filipinos as preparations continue for the anticipated "Big One," a movement of the West Valley fault that could generate a magnitude 7.2 earthquake.

The OCD chief made these remarks on the eve of the fourth quarter Nationwide Simultaneous Earthquake Drill (NSED) set to take place in Camiguin Island.

The drill, scheduled at 2 p.m. at the Provincial Sports Complex in Mambajao town, Camiguin, will focus on tsunami scenarios.

Speaking at the Kapihan sa Manila Hotel, Nepomuceno described the "Big One" as a significant concern.

"Studies show that around 30,000 to 52,000 people will die, while around 162,000 will be seriously injured. There may be successive fires, and possible collapse of buildings, bridges, and other structures," said at the media forum hosted by former senator Joey Lina and Manila Bulletin publisher Sonny Coloma.

Nepomuceno said a recent survey revealed at least 2 million structures are located near or on top of the fault system, which stretches from Bulacan to Laguna.

To adequately prepare for such a catastrophic event, Nepomuceno stressed the need for strict compliance with building codes, adherence to engineering and scientific solutions, and the establishment of a culture of resilience.

"We have a long way to go. It's not yet in our nature. We should start this culture of resilience at home," he said.

Nepomuceno expressed concern that many Filipinos do not take earthquake and typhoon advisories seriously, including mobile alerts and disaster drills.

"Tomorrow, we have a national simultaneous earthquake drill. Some people are not taking it seriously. It's not yet in our mindset to even 'duck, cover, and hold.' You need that to gain your balance, then look for a sturdy table," he explained, adding that disaster resilience is not among the top concerns for Filipinos according to a recent survey.

He said the OCD is now rotating earthquake and disaster preparedness exercises to include provinces.

"Tomorrow in the province we have a tsunami scenario. Before, it was only in Metro Manila, but now we are also preparing the partners of Metro Manila cities in the provinces. We are training them because there are also several trenches and fault systems outside Metro Manila where other 'Big Ones' or 'Bigger Ones' can happen," Nepomuceno pointed out.

Dr. Teresito Bacolcol, director of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) reinforced the urgency of preparedness, noting the Philippines has 175 active faults and six trenches.

"So we have a lot of 'Big Ones', actually 'Bigger Ones' in some areas," he said.

Bacolcol emphasized the need for a whole-of-society approach in preparing for potential disasters.

"Unity of efforts may save us all," he added.

Meanwhile, Nepomuceno said the only time the Philippines can claim preparedness for the "Big One" is when the goal is set that no lives will be lost in the disaster.

"Our target is zero casualty," he affirmed.

Thursday's NSED will simulate a strong offshore earthquake with a magnitude of 6.8, affecting the Island of Camiguin and its neighboring provinces.

Residents are expected to experience the quake at a Phivolcs Earthquake Intensity Scale (PEIS) level VI, which may lead to rock falls, landslides, and structural collapses.

Following the earthquake, a tsunami approximately 3 meters high is anticipated, particularly impacting the coastlines of Mambajao and Catarman. The drill will also incorporate a scenario involving Hibok-Hibok Volcano, currently at Volcano Alert Level 1, which may experience a phreatic eruption around 2:30 p.m., producing a steam-driven eruption column of about 1,000 meters.

Ashfall forecasts will prompt alerts from the Camiguin Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office.

Additionally, aftershocks at PEIS levels II to IV may further challenge emergency response efforts, potentially disrupting water, electricity, and communication services.

All residents and participating agencies are urged to remain vigilant and prepared for effective coordination during the drill. (PNA)